TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/012191/0121015.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 7.1 KB | 150 lines

                                                                                THE GULF, Page 34

Advantage: the Alliance


Vast superiority in aircraft, tanks, training and logistics
should help the U.S. score a quick knockout in a battle with
Iraq

By BRUCE VAN VOORST/SAUDI ARABIA


    As the U.S. Air Force F-15E fighter-bomber lifted off from
a Saudi airfield, deadly Sparrow and Sidewinder air-to-air
missiles glistened beneath its wings. Not far away, in the
Persian Gulf, sailors on the battleship Wisconsin ran through
training drills with their 32 Tomahawk cruise missiles, each
capable of hitting targets 700 miles away with a 1,000-lb.
conventional warhead. At a desolate desert site in northeast
Saudi Arabia, tanks of the U.S. 1st Marine Division blazed away
in live-fire exercises. In the last nerve-racking hours before
"K-day" -- the U.N.'s Jan. 15 deadline for Iraq to get out of
Kuwait -- U.S. troops were understandably edgy. But they had
little doubt that they were capable of smashing Saddam
Hussein's army. "We're ready," is all that Brigadier General
Mike Myatt, commander of the 1st Marines, would say. But his
remark spoke volumes.

    Such confidence, widely shared by rank-and-file soldiers,
contradicts the more cautious assessments of some senior
commanders. They maintain that it will be mid-February before
their troops are fully prepared for combat. But a firsthand
inspection of the frontline forces suggests that Myatt's
optimism is justified. The U.S. and allied soldiers already in
place seem capable of delivering an overwhelming blow against
the Iraqis. Even worse from Saddam's viewpoint, the alliance is
growing stronger with each passing day. By K-day, 430,000 U.S.
and 245,000 allied soldiers will square off against 605,000
Iraqi troops.

    When asked to predict the outcome of a war against Iraq,
senior officers invariably quote Clausewitz's warning about the
"fog of war" -- the uncertainties that inevitably crop up in
combat. Even so, it seems possible, perhaps even likely, that
the U.S.-led alliance could score a reasonably quick knockout.
The awesome arsenal that the coalition has assembled in the
gulf provides it with overwhelming military advantages. "I look
at the scenarios," says an Army colonel, "and I just don't see
where Saddam's army is going to hide."

    Though there is justified skepticism that air power alone
can defeat Saddam's forces, it remains the key to allied
victory. Pounded by a savage aerial assault unlike anything
they experienced in their war with Iran, some Iraqi units might
collapse. The U.S., Saudi and British air forces have a
combined strength of more than 1,500 combat aircraft, enough
to mount close to 2,000 bombing sorties a day against Iraqi
targets. The initial attack would be led by radar-evading F-117A
Stealth fighter-bombers and sea-based Tomahawk cruise
missiles, attacking key Iraqi military and infrastructure
facilities. In the second phase of the air campaign, hulking
Air Force B-52s, F-111s and F-15Es would join Navy F/A-18s and
A-6s in striking Iraqi ground installations, from
water-purification works to command and control centers and
airfields.

    If all went well, the Iraqi air force would be swept from
the skies within the first couple of days. That would allow the
air attacks to be stepped up even more, cutting Iraqi supply
and communications lines and leaving the occupation forces
inside Kuwait unable to replenish their supplies of ammunition,
food and, above all, water. Some U.S. aircraft would be lost
to Iraq's enormous ground-defense system, but the toll might
be relatively low. Congressman Les Aspin, chairman of the House
Armed Services Committee, estimates that no more than 10 U.S.
planes a day would be shot down in the initial bombing campaign.

    Once the bombing had softened up the Iraqi positions, U.S.
ground forces could go into action. Part of the force might
swing to the west to cut off Iraqi forces in southern Iraq
while other units mounted a frontal attack to smash through
enemy defenses in Kuwait. Though military tradition holds that
an attacking force must have a 3-to-1 superiority in numbers
to be confident of victory, U.S. troops have good reasons for
discounting those odds in a battle against Iraq. Among them:

    Training. The U.S. military is an all-volunteer force with
the highest levels of education and training in history. As a
result, American soldiers have proved remarkably adaptable,
quickly solving many of the unique problems posed by desert
warfare. Helicopter-maintenance crews, for example, have
learned to prevent the dustlike Saudi sands from damaging their
choppers by cleaning filters more often and applying a new
epoxy to rotor blades to stanch erosion.

    Weapons. Close to 1,000 M1A1 tanks are now in Saudi Arabia,
and with their laser range finders, infrared sensors and
digital computerized firing systems, they should be able to
outrun and outgun the best Iraqi tanks, Soviet-made T-72s.
Infantry will navigate with the Global Positioning Satellite
system, a book-size receiver that allows them to determine
their location within a couple of yards. The big surprise if
war broke out could be American Apache and Cobra helicopters.
Despite a reputation for maintenance problems, the Apaches in
Saudi Arabia have been ready for duty more than 80% of the
time. Each Apache is equipped with eight laser-guided Hellfire
antitank missiles, and, says a maintenance officer, "each
Hellfire's a dead tank."

    Logistics. U.S. logistical superiority could quickly become
a decisive factor. To assure adequate stocks of food, water,
fuel and ammunition, the U.S. has mounted the biggest military
resupply effort in history. Some 100 transport ships are
sailing toward Saudi Arabia. More than 2,500 trucks will
deliver weapons and ammunition to the front.

    Motivation. In the final analysis, the outcome could turn
on the motivation of individual soldiers, and on this count,
the U.S. (and some of its allies) enjoys a decided advantage.
Early concerns about troop morale have faded. Without alcohol
and other diversions, these troops just may be the toughest
ever. "Saddam might yet regret having given us time to get
ready," said Sergeant First Class Donna Munyon, 33, of McHenry,
Ill.

    Along with the bravado, there is apprehension. The troops
are aware of predictions that perhaps as many as 20,000 of them
could be wounded or killed. They are particularly nervous about
the threat of Iraqi chemical or biological warfare, and
officers have no trouble enforcing regulations that protective
gear be carried at all times. Says Specialist Robert Kraus, 20,
of Jefferson Station, N.Y.: "There's fear to an extent. I am
not saying the Army brainwashes you. But we train so much that
we are used to what is going to happen."

    The long wait may soon be over. At week's end soldiers were
sending home personal souvenirs and items they do not want to
carry into battle. Despite their confidence in their mission,
it was not easy to look at them and reflect on what might lie
ahead.